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HBCU Post Season Play Continues Today

A.D. Drew & Bryan Fulford • Mar 11, 2021

HBCU Post Season Play Continues Today

March 11, 2021
A.D. Drew & Bryan Fulford | Black College Sports Network

Conference tournament play continues today for HBCUs in NCAA Division I.   The Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) continues with day 2 of their quarterfinals, along with the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) opening round.  The NAIA HBCUs and NCAA Division II's lone HBCU are on location in their various cities and undergoing COVID-19 protocols as they prepare to begin play tomorrow.  Here is a breakdown of the matchups, where to watch, and lines on today's games.

MEAC WOMEN’S TOURNAMENT ODDS TO WIN

The MEAC's decision to split the conference into two divisions looked like a great idea prior to Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M and Maryland Eastern Shore and South Carolina State (mid-season) women's teams deciding to opt-out of participating in sports/women's basketball this year. Unfortunately, when that happened the conference didn't adjust their plans, create a bubble or round-up in one city/campus that would have given the original eight remaining schools a chance at playing the other.  

As it turns out, two of the eight (Delaware State didn't play its final games due to COVID-19) aren't even participating in the tournament so we only get a six-team field. Thus, any matchup in the conference tournament championship game other than North Carolina A&T and Howard will be a slight disappointment.  

The winners of the southern and northern division, respectively, have dominated their divisions posting 10-win seasons. The Aggies have the best scoring offense and defense in the conference, as well as the longest winning streak of the year, 10 games. The Bison have the most overall wins (14) and best non-conference wins with victories in December against LaSalle, George Washington and Richmond.

The best team that can ruin that N1 vs S1 matchup is Morgan State (11-3), who split four games against Howard this season and ended up in the toughest half of the bracket with North Carolina Central and A&T. But, don't shed a tear for Morgan State. The Lady Bears have the third-best scoring offense (64.4 ppg) and second-best scoring defense (61.1 ppg) in the conference. With first-team All-MEAC forward Dahnye Redd, the Bears defeated NC Central by 7 points and North Carolina A&T by 4 points last year.

North Carolina Central's Anissa Rivera won the MEAC's Defensive Player of the Year, but an argument could have been made that she was the overall player of the year, and it's very likely that team record factored into the reason why she didn't win that award. Rivera leads the conference in scoring average (16.1), rebound average (10.2), defensive rebounds (117) and average (7.8), blocked shots (46) and average (3.1). The Eagles were 4-11 overall and 2-6 in conference games. Can Rivera lead NC Central on a Cinderella run to a title? 

According to ESPNW, North Carolina A&T is their favorite to win. You have to make North Carolina A&T a slight favorite over Howard with Morgan State a close third. Dr. B's conference tournament odds to win would look like this:

North Carolina A&T 3/2 (+150)
Howard 3/1 (+300)
Morgan State 4/1 (+400)
North Carolina 7/1 (+700)
Norfolk State 9/1 (+900)
Coppin State 10/1 (+1000)

Dr. B's Prediction: The Aggies score just one point less per 100 possession than UConn, which makes them the third most dangerous team on offense IN THE NATION. They allow the seventh fewest points in the nation (52.4) and the fourth best turnover margin in the nation (8.0). All the metrics scream "TAKE THE AGGIES!" But, in a year where they haven't faced their two toughest opponents, Morgan State and Howard, I think one of them trips up the Aggies in Norfolk. I'm going to ride with the Howard Bison to win a championship game that goes down to the last possession or two. Score: 58-55.

MEAC MEN’S TOURNAMENT ODDS TO WIN

Odd to win the 2021 MEAC Tournament are a little harder to find, and that might have to do with the opening round games being played on FloSports. (Tip: oddsmakers do not like being unable to find or watch games, let alone having to pay to see them.)

Norfolk State 12/5 (+240)
North Carolina A&T 11/4 (+275)
Coppin State 3/1 (+300)
Morgan State 3/1 (+300)
Florida A&M 7/1 (+700)
North Carolina Central 8/1 (+800)

According to Teamrankings.com, the team with the best odds to win the tournament is Norfolk State (25.87%). But, the intriguing team to play on is Florida A&M.

The Rattlers are predicted to win by just 42.23% and then 24.04% to advance to the championship. They have the second-lowest odds to win the tournament at 11.32%.

Under 2021 MEAC Coach of the Year Robert McCullum, Florida A&M is 4-0 against the teams on their side of the bracket. FAMU has only played Morgan State and Coppin State once each of the last two seasons. The last time FAMU had a conference winning record entering the tournament, 2007, they won.

The toughest side of the bracket to figure out is the bottom side of the bracket with North Carolina A&T as the 1-seed. They will face the winner of NC Central and Norfolk State. Despite needing two wins to get to the championship game, the Spartans are the favorites. But, right behind them as a close second-favorite is North Carolina A&T.  

Neither of those teams should sleep on the team featured on their own ESPN docuseries, "Why Not Us," North Carolina Central. The Eagles still have something to play for and would have a great story to tell should they advance to the championship and win. Their goal, per Coach Levelle Moton in the series, is being the first HBCU to advance to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Dr. B’s Prediction: Give me the team with value, prides themselves on playing defense and has the better draw. The stars are aligning for FAMU to make a run. I’ll be on the Florida A&M Rattlers to win at +700.

TODAY'S MATCHUPS

MEAC WOMEN (Norfolk, VA)
#3N Coppin State, 2-12 (2-10) vs. #2S Norfolk State, 4-8 (3-5), Noon EST, FLOSPORTS.
via https://nsuspartans.com: The Spartans closed the regular season winning two of their final three games to edge out North Carolina Central for the second seed from the South. NSU will be looking for its second MEAC Tournament championship of all time, and first since 2002.  The Spartans closed the season with a 65-61 loss to North Carolina Central on March 4 in Durham. NSU, which had just seven players in uniform, saw that cut to three on the floor after four players fouled out in the fourth quarter. NCCU scored its final 10 points from the free-throw line to top NSU.

Coppin State received the North No. 3 seed after Delaware State, which was in third place, could not finish the season due to COVID-19 issues. The Eagles went 2-12 on the season, 2-10 in the North, and lost their last four games of the year. 

VEGAS LINE:  N/A
MASSEY RATING:  Win Probability - NSU (86%), Norfolk St. (-11), O/U 113

#3S North Carolina Central, 3-12 (2-6) vs. #2N Morgan State, 11-3 (8-2), BCSN #5, 2pm EST, FLOSPORTS.
via https://nccueaglepride.com and https://morganstatebears.com:  Morgan State (11-3, 8-2 MEAC) has not played since Feb. 28, as its regular season finale against Delaware State (3/3-4), got canceled due to health and safety protocols. The Lady Bears enter the MEAC Tournament riding a three-game winning streak, following their sweep of Coppin State (2/27-28).  Morgan State had its last two games of the regular season get cancelled, which did not allow the Bears to potentially tie Howard University for the Northern Division regular season title with two wins.  North Carolina Central (4-11, 2-6 MEAC) is coming off a 65-61 victory over Norfolk State in the season finale in Durham, N.C. (3/4), to end a seven-game losing streak.

Morgan State leads the all-time series, 12-5. The two teams did not meet this season.  Morgan State topped NCCU, 86-79, in the last time the two programs met in Baltimore, Maryland, on Feb. 10, 2020.  Morgan State holds a 1-0 lead in the MEAC Tournament. The two have met just once previously in the 2016 MEAC Tournament, as the Lady Bears defeated the Lady Eagles, 52-42 in the first round (3/7/16).  

NCCU won its last MEAC Tournament quarterfinals game last season to North Carolina A&T State University, but was unable to make the first semifinals appearance in program history due to the coronavirus pandemic cancelling the rest of postseason play later that day. 

VEGAS LINE:  N/A
MASSEY RATING: Win Probability - MSU (69%), Morgan St. (-6), O/U 132

SWAC Women (Birmingham, AL)
#3 Southern, 11-10 (11-4) vs. #6 Alcorn State, 7-12 (7-8), Noon EST, ESPN3
via https://alcornsports.com: Alcorn ended the regular season strong with a four-point victory at Prairie View A&M, 57-53. The Lady Braves finished the regular season tenth rated defense in terms of steals per game, snatching an average of 11.5 a night. Alcorn also ranked top-15 in turnovers forced a game (20.42) and top-30 for turnover margin (4.05).  

Southern won three in-a-row and five of its final six contests with its only defeat coming opposite Alabama A&M by two, 78-76. The Lady Jaguars were 13th in the nation for both turnover margin (6.33) and turnovers forced per game (20.67), top-25 for three-point defense (26.5) and top-30 for steals per contest (10.2). Southern swept the season series this year but trails the Alcorn all-time by a count of 49-34. The last time these two programs met in the conference tournament in 2017 when the Lady Jaguars defeated the Lady Braves (73-67) in Baton Rouge.

VEGAS LINE: N/A
MASSEY RATING: Win Probability - SU (90%), Southern (-13), O/U 119

#4 Grambling State, 9-9 (8-6) vs. #5 Alabama A&M 10-6 (8-5), 6:30pm EST, ESPN3
via https://aamusports.com: The two teams just played to close out the regular season on Saturday, March 6 with GSU pulling out a narrow 72-68 decision. Alabama A&M scores 67.0 ppg, and is averaging 39.3 rpg. As a team, the Lady Bulldogs shoot 43.1% from the field and 30.1% from behind the 3-point arc. Grambling is scoring 64.4 ppg while pulling fown 33.4 boards per game. The Lady Tigers shoot 40.2% from the field while hitting 29.3% from behind the 3-point arc. Advantage from the charity stripe goes to GSU with 66.3% vs. 62.8%

VEGAS LINE: N/A
MASSEY RATING: Win Probability - AAMU (57%), Alabama A&M (-3), O/U 127

MEAC MEN (Norfolk, VA)
#3N Morgan State 12-7 (7-5), BCSN#5 vs. #2S Florida A&M 8-11 (7-5), 6pm EST, FLOSPORTS.
via https://famuathletics.com and https://morganstatebears.com:  This is the highest seed the Rattlers have received in the MEAC Tournament since 2007, when FAMU earned the No. 2 seed en route to winning the tournament championship. Offensively, FAMU is eighth is scoring offense (68.1 ppg) but is the most efficient in field-goal percentage, shooting a league-high 44.3 percent.  Defensively, the Rattlers have the best scoring defense in the conference, giving up a league-low 68.1 points per game and holding opponents to a 42.8 field goal percentage, including a league-low 28.0 percent from behind the arc.

Bears look to bounce back after a tough loss at Delaware State last Saturday that knocked them out of a share of the Northern Division title with Norfolk State and Coppin State.  Morgan State, as a team, is averaging a league best 80.7 ppg, while shooting 44.4 percent from the field. The Bears enter the tournament coming off an 82-75 loss to Delaware State. Morgan State returns 65.7 percent of its scoring, 59.6 percent of its rebounding and 68.5 percent of its minutes played totals from last year's team.  • The Bears are 8-2 this season when leading at halftime.  MSU has compiled a 2-4 record in games it is trailing at halftime. MSU is 2-1 in games when tied at halftime.

The Bears and Rattlers are meeting for the 63rd time in the series overall and for the seventh time in the MEAC Tournament.  This is the first time in the tournament since 2009.  Florida A&M leads the series 36-26.  MSU's last win against Florida A&M was on Jan. 6, 2018.  The Rattlers last win against MSU was on Jan. 11, 2020. 

VEGAS LINE:  Morgan State (-3.5/-4.5; OU 140)
MASSEY RATING: Win Probability - MSU (52%), Morgan St. (-1), O/U 141

#3S North Carolina Central, 5-8 (3-5) vs. #2N Norfolk State, 14-7 (8-4), BCSN #2, 8pm, FLOSPORTS
via https://nccueaglepride.com and https://nsuspartans.com:  The Eagles played just 13 games this year after having numerous games cancelled due to COVID-19. After winning the league's regular season title last year, they finished third in the division this year and are coming off a split with Florida A&M to close out the regular season last week. NCCU only averages 68 points per game.  As a team, NCCU forces nearly 16 turnovers per game, but the team struggles on the glass to the tune of a -5.3 rebound margin.  NCCU is making its 10th appearance at the MEAC Tournament at the Division I level, and has won the title four times. The Eagles have won the last three championship games that have been played, and are currently on an 11-game winning streak at Scope Arena, including the truncated 2020 MEAC Tournament.  NCCU is third in the MEAC in three-point percentage (34.7) and in points allowed per game (70.5).  NCCU is 13-4 at a neutral site since the 2016-17 season.  NCCU is 16-4 at the MEAC Tournament under LeVelle Moton with four titles.  NCCU has won 11 consecutive games in the MEAC Tournament.

Norfolk State wrapped up the regular season with a 72-51 non-conference win over St. Mary's College of Maryland on Feb. 28 at home. Devante Carter scored 18 points on 8-of-12 shooting to lead three players in double figures. The Spartans shot 51 percent from the floor and forced 20 turnovers. They outscored the Seahawks 36-12 in points in the paint and 11-2 in second-chance points.  NSU's share of the MEAC Northern Division title this year marked the third regular season title for the program since joining the league. The Spartans won the regular season title in 2012-13 (16-0) and 2018-19 (14-2).  NSU has been to the semifinals of the MEAC tournament nine times in the last 12 seasons, not counting last year's tournament that was cancelled before NSU's quarterfinal game.  The 2012 team captured the program's only MEAC title.

VEGAS LINE:  Norfolk State (-5.5; OU 132.5/133.5)
MASSEY RATING: Win Probability - NSU (66%), Norfolk St. (-4), O/U 136

SWAC Men (Birmingham, AL)
#3 Texas Southern, 13-8 (10-3), BCSN#3 vs #6 Alcorn State, 6-12 (6-7), 3pm EST, ESPN3
via https://tsusports.com and https://alcornsports.com:  Texas Southern are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, pulling down the sixth-most boards per game at 41.11, the 12th-highest defensive rebounds per game (28.89) and a top-40 placement for offensive rebounds per game (12.21) and rebound margin (5.4). Texas Southern closed out SWAC play on a strong note with a six-game winning streak and winners of 11-of-12 games.  TSU fell in the finals of the 2019 SWAC Tournament and competed in the CIT. TSU advanced to the semifinals of the CIT in 2019. Last season, the Tigers made it back to the semifinals of the SWAC Tournament after a third-place regular season finish but saw the season end abruptly due to COVID-19.  TSU's 25-game win streak over ASU came to an end in January of 2020 as ASU started a two game streak in 2020. TSU broke the streak last week as the first meeting was canceled due to COVID-19. TSU hasn't faced Alcorn State in postseason play since the finals of the 2017 SWAC Tournament as they won 53-50.  The Tigers have not lost in the first round of SWAC Tournament play since 2009 and has played in the title game the past three of four years as 2020 was canceled due to COVID-19.

Alcorn State enters on a three-game losing streak but took TSU to the wire last week in Houston as they fell 80-78.   The Braves took the Tigers down to the wire, last Thursday as TSU rallied from a halftime deficit to win, 80-78.  Alcorn is among the top-35 best teams in forcing turnovers (15.75), top-55 in fewest turnovers (224), just outside the top-60 in steals per game (7.6), top-75 for free-throw percentage (73.8) and among the top-100 for both fewest fouls (333) plus turnover margin (1.8).

VEGAS LINE:  Texas Southern (-8.5/-9; OU 145/145.5)
MASSEY RATING: Win Probability - TXSO (77%), Texas Southern (-8), O/U 148

#4 Grambling State 11-11 (9-6) vs. #5 Southern 8-10 (8-6), 9:30pm EST, ESPN3
via https://gsutigers.com and https://gojagsports.com: The Grambling Tigers finished the regular season with an 80-72 victory over Alabama A&M this past Saturday.  The Tigers trailed by 10 points at halftime, but exploded to a 48-point second half while outscoring its opponent by nearly 20 points.  Grambling State was 23-of-57 (40 percent) shooting from the field and 26-of-34 (67 percent) from the charity stripe.  GSU registered 27 rebounds, including 18 coming on the defensive glass.

The Southern University men's basketball comeback fell short Thursday night as they fell to Prairie View 68-61.  SU found itself trailing 13-4 to open the game before the Jags went on a 12-3.  PV finished on an 8-0 run taking a 32-29 lead into the locker room.  The second half started very similar to the end of the first half as both teams traded baskets and each went on runs.

VEGAS LINE:  Southern (-1.5/-2.5; OU 138)
MASSEY RATING: Win Probability - GSU (58%), Grambling State (-3), O/U 135
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